Salyersville, KY – 4 Day Forecast

Salyersville

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Current Weather Conditions

9/28/2023

Good morning all! Weather Specialist Alyssa Chance here. Today we’re going to dive into the rabbit hole that consists of our winter forecast.

I know there’s some of you that absolutely dread to hear the word, but there’s also some of you that absolutely love to hear it. Regardless of what side of the fence you’re on, it’s important to know what’s in store for all of us nestled in the Appalachians.

According to the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), we are headed towards an El Nino winter.

El Nino is a weather pattern that has to do with the weakening of the trade winds over the Pacific Ocean, which leads to warm ocean waters in the eastern tropical Pacific.

With an El Nino pattern, the warmer waters increase the potential for precipitation in areas like California through Texas, and even into the Southeastern US. When that happens, the Polar jet stream sets up slightly further North, which makes for warmer than normal temps in the Northern part of the US. So in other words, it’s warmer than normal in the north, wetter in the south.

For the past few years, we have had what we call a La Nina winter.

La Nina is a weather pattern that causes the jet stream to move Northward and to weaken over the Eastern Pacific. The South sees warmer/drier conditions than usual, while the Northern part of the US and Canada tend to be wetter and colder.

With the predictions coming out in late September, the forecast shows above normal temps across the North through the winter months, with New England, Pacific Northwest, and the Upper Great Lakes regions seeing the best chances. As for the South, we are under the normal/below normal temp range.

Now as for precipitation, the forecast shows that much of the North will experience drier than normal conditions, with the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Midwest seeing the driest conditions. A persistent jet stream will set up over the south, which will bring increased precipitation for the majority of the deep south, including parts of the east coast. Whether it’s rain or snow, that’s to be determined.

Please understand that since this is a projected forecast for 3-4 months into the future, model runs and forecasts are subject to change. With the way I demonstrate my work, the inner Appalachian woman comes out in me. Not only do I use data that was captured by various Atmospheric organizations, I also use various wives tales that my dad, my grandmothers, and other ancestors have used for decades in order to prepare for the season ahead. Here’s what I have gathered so far:

The persimmon seed has shown spoons, which means “to shovel snow”.
The wooly worm has shown off its jet black fur, which means that the winter season ahead will be harsh.
The crows flying higher than they normally would tell us that blankets of snow are coming.
Hornets nests resting higher than normal tells us that snow will be deep.

While everyone else probably thinks I’m insane for believing such silly tales, they have proven true time and time again.

I’m hoping everyone has a good understanding as to what the colder months have for us. I found it was important to share as much information with you as possible, so that everyone is well informed, well prepared and safe.

So y’all be like The Eagles and “take it easy”.

Stay tuned for the latest! – Alyssa

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